Dr. Jacqueline LaGuardia Martinez* was asked to share her perspectives on the following questions during CWIT’s Caribbean Trade Policy Review 2024 held January 30, 2025.

Are we living in a new “Cold War”? The old Cold War had imposed a bipolar world view to the detriment of the Caribbean and other developing states. Is this going to be true of the new Cold War? What would this mean for the Caribbean, and in particular, what are the implications for the Caribbean of U.S.-China rivalry? How can the  region position itself to advance its own interests?

A summary of the lecture follows. 

I. Are we living in the era of a new Cold War?

There is a lot of discussion about whether we should be calling this moment that we are living in today, a new Cold War. There are also a lot of new books and authors that are actually using the term. I do not believe that we are necessarily in the presence of a new cold war.

The current period is full of complexities. New elements as well as major transformations are putting us in front of a different moment. Our capacity to understand that is going to be at the center of the nature and quality of the responses that we will be able to design and implement in the Caribbean. We need to understand our position, how we can react, and how we can accommodate, survive, and even be an important part of this new moment.

II. What characterizes the current period?

Today, we have a more mature multilateral system. There are multiple states trying to achieve and to define a dominant position in the global system. This statement is also true of several regional organizations. This situation is quite different from the Cold War where there were only two dominant perspectives, with a lot of minor countries surrounding the major confrontation between the East and the West.

Even the system of alliances is being redefined. While the Cold War period had a certain amount of political predictability, today, the system of alliances is not clear. And a different and key element is that the two actors that are supposed to be the main elements in the conflict – China and the USA – are very interdependent. That was not the case between the USSR and the US, and the system of alliances that existed before. So, an economic war between China and the USA is going to be costly for both of them.

Another feature is the inability of some states to contain internal violence from non-state actors. That is one of the characteristics we are facing in the Caribbean with the very complex situation in Haiti.

There is a change in the global economy dynamism. The Atlantic is not the relevant ocean anymore. The dynamism has moved to the Pacific and that is going to impact the relevance that the Caribbean has had in the past.

There is a conversation about the Fourth Industrial Revolution and what we are witnessing today are major transformations in how energy is produced and how knowledge is produced and managed. So, in our discussions about energy sources and Artificial Intelligence, we need to be aware that these changes are having an impact on how societies and systems are functioning today.

The amount of vulnerabilities that we are facing today in terms of the environment has increased tremendously. In the Caribbean we are very much aware of what climate change is and what it is doing to our societies.

This moment of change and transformation also brings danger and the challenge of Interstate conflicts – hot wars and armed conflicts – that could escalate and be quite a danger or a menace for areas like the Caribbean.

The emergence of “medium powers” is also of great importance to the region. One of the most widely known examples is the BRICS countries. This is a very diverse group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and now the group has enlarged. We are talking about a group of emerging powers that are also redefining the system of alliances globally. In addition, there does not appear to be a consensus or unified way of establishing the system of alliances even within the BRICS. Major differences exist among these countries.

 
These elements and transformations are all adding complexity to the moment in which we are living, in how to understand potential conflicts, and in how we need to position ourselves in this challenging and changing global scenario.

III. What does this era, particularly U.S.-China rivalry, mean for the Caribbean?

We should start with a discussion of what is the Caribbean? But as we do not have time to go into that, this discussion refers only to the 14 independent states that are full members of CARICOM. We also note that there is tremendous diversity among these 14 states.

My analysis assesses the regional perspective and identifies the key elements for the CARICOM Caribbean to take into account in its relationship with China and the U.S.

What have been the major foreign policy trends of the region? CARICOM Caribbean states have been fairly successful in following a foreign policy usually characterized by the sophisticated use of pragmatism based on the rules of multilateralism. Respect for the rules of the multilateral order, self-determination of states, and peaceful coexistence of states are all central pillars of multilateralism. They lie at the core of Caribbean foreign policy and can inform the region’s reaction to most of the conflicts that are happening today. In addition, there is a preference for non-alignment of Caribbean countries, although that could be difficult to maintain in a scenario of sharp confrontation.

CARICOM-U.S. Relations
The US is the major economic and trade partner for the Caribbean. There is also large cooperation in security. An important Caribbean diaspora lives in the U.S. Our investments come primarily from the U.S. and the financial system in the Caribbean is very much tied to the US dollar. For the U.S., even if the Caribbean might not be the strategic area of interest, it is not totally irrelevant, especially when looking into the US understanding of its national security.

What could be challenging for the Caribbean today is that there is no clarity as to what is U.S. policy towards the CARICOM Caribbean. We had some hints at the Ninth Summit of the Americas in 2022, but now we have a new administration in the U.S. What will be the approach to the CARICOM Caribbean? That is something that is not clear as yet.

CARICOM-China Relations
China’s trade presence in the region is minor as compared to that of the U.S. However, it has held winning positions when it comes to development cooperation and investment for development loans. Most CARICOM Members States have signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to be part of the Silk and Road initiative. While a few countries have not signed the MOU, they have economic agreements with China. Part of the complexity of the Caribbean relation with China is that five countries do not have diplomatic relations with China but have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. That difference brings an element of our complexity for the region to react in consensus.

Unlike the U.S., the Chinese Government has evinced a fairly consistent approach towards the region. They have published two policy papers that can give us guidance as to their purpose and what they would like to achieve in the region.

What then will be the potential areas of friction that we might expect in our relations with the U.S. and China? What might emerge in the future?
We can expect the following tensions in U.S.-CARICOM relations:

• Different positions exist around climate change – the position of the new US administration towards the Paris Agreement is likely to be different from that of the CARICOM Caribbean.
• In terms of cooperation in such areas as health and general development cooperation, we definitely might expect some friction.
• With respect to migration, the amount of CARICOM nationals in the U.S. is not large when compared to Latin American and other nationalities. That could still be a point of friction with the U.S. if they pursue mass deportation.
• Finding a sustainable and fair solution to the crisis in Haiti is another potential area of disagreement.
• Conflicts around technology can become more acute, particularly with respect to the use of 5G technology that has already been part of the conflict between the U.S. and China in the region.

We can anticipate the following tensions with respect to China-CARICOM relations:
The main potential area of friction is the absence of a regional position towards China. There has been much criticism of Chinese investment practices, loans and credit markets. This can potentially become the target of an escalating conflict around the presence of China in the region.

IV. How can CARICOM advance Its interests in this new environment?

What can we do in the face of the growing competition between China and the U.S. as competing poles of power around the world? None of the following recommendations are new. They have been talked about extensively before. The wise strategy is to be prepared to work to implement them.

• It could be useful for the Caribbean to nourish alternative partnerships to address its major dependence on and connection with the U.S. economy. It could be useful to diversify our economic and trade partners, and to seek alternative sources of investment. Of course, this is easier said than done. But if we do not have a clear policy, it will be difficult to attract and to engage in relationships with other partners.
• • We have a weak relationship with Latin America, our immediate neighbor. Our relations with Asia and Africa are gaining economic importance because of the vibrant economic activity that is taking place there. They are farther away, but more can be done to explore relations with the markets, as well as with the governments in these countries.
  • Post-Brexit, more can be done to promote increased economic exchange and our relationship with the European Union, especially in terms of cooperation and access to development funds.
• There is also the need to invigorate our own regional projects. We live in a moment that is critical for CARICOM and especially the CSME to advance.
  • There is a role to be played by the Association of Caribbean States (ACS), especially when it comes to promoting multinational, multi-destination tourism, and promotion of transportation and communication alternatives. Our current routes are extremely insufficient and is a definite weakness in the region. We still compete far more than we collaborate or work in complementarity. This is an area that requires political action.
• The Caribbean should be consolidating its leadership position at the global level. The Caribbean has shown capacity to mobilize attention and to establish norms and codes for action in climate change and the proposal for reform of the financial architecture – the Bridgetown initiative. These efforts need to be supported and continued.
• There is the need for the region to have strategies to reduce not only economic dependence, but the many dependencies that are a major source of vulnerability. What is going to happen with the process of energy transition that we have announced in CARICOM? How are we going to promote food security? How are we going to rely on endogenous and domestic technologies? How are we going to have not only national security and environment with less crime, but diminish transnational crime? How are we going to not only adapt to but also mitigate climate change? And how are we going to build financial resilience?

The above elements are part of the clear strategies that we need to design and to implement if we want to be prepared for the very complicated world that we are already living in and will continue to face in the coming years.

Thank you very much.

* Dr. Jacqueline LaGuardia Martinez is a senior lecturer at the Institute of International Relations, University of the West Indies St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago.

Dr. Jacqueline LaGuardia Martinez* was asked to share her perspectives on the following questions during CWIT’s Caribbean Trade Policy Review 2024 held January 30, 2025.

Are we living in a new “Cold War”? The old Cold War had imposed a bipolar world view to the detriment of the Caribbean and other developing states. Is this going to be true of the new Cold War? What would this mean for the Caribbean, and in particular, what are the implications for the Caribbean of U.S.-China rivalry? How can the region position itself to advance its own interests?